THE federal ministry for food, agriculture and livestock (Minfal) has asked Sindh and Punjab to replace half of their sugarcane crop with sugar beet in order to meet the challenge of water shortage.

The ministry has concluded that it is becoming almost impossible to sustain the existing sowing area of sugarcane, one million hectares every year on an average, as the crop is water intensive and takes more than a year to mature with recovery ratio seldom exceeding eight per cent

Arguably, sugar beet recovery is 10 per cent and its maturity period is half of that of sugarcane with lesser water consumption. According Minfal, the sugarcane crop is adding to the existing water crisis. The sugarcane crop on one million hectare consumes 15 million acre feet (MAF) water till maturity and Tarbela Dam’s capacity is 15 MAF.

Given the severity of water shortage, it is likely that farmers would not be able to grow crops with higher water needs. However, the advice of the ministry to farmers to replace sugarcane with sugar beet for the forthcoming season might not be practical in the backdrop of missing production technology and non-availability of information on cost-benefit analysis on sugar beet.

Irrigation is a critical input for agriculture. To deal with water shortage by replacing one crop with higher water needs with another with lower requirement does not offer permanent solution to cope with the crisis.

India has once again threatened the agro-based economy by blocking its share of the Chenab waters in sheer violation of the Indus Basin Treaty of 1960. India is bound to release 55,000 cusecs water even when filling the lake but it is not honouring the international commitments. We kept on blaming India for constructing the Baglihar dam but failed to construct even a single dam in our country since 1976.

Shortage of irrigation water causes problems in cultivation of crops. Poor germination because of poor quality seed causes less plant population per unit area. Two important factors of low wheat yield also include late sowing and low plant population.

Water shortage had badly hit the growth and development of Kharif crops. There was 34 per cent water shortage during Kharif season. Water scarcity delayed cotton sowing as well as reduction in sowing area by 10-11 per cent. Water scarcity during vegetative growth results in less number of productive tillers and stunted plant growth. During reproductive period, it leads to short and fewer grains.

Rabi crops have a special significance in national economy. Agriculture constitutes about 21 per cent of GDP and the crops’ contribution is anywhere from 10-11 per cent. These constitute a very big chunk of national and international grain trade. Wheat crop requires at least four watering at different intervals during its growth stages. In terms of delta of water, wheat crop needs 26 to 28 acre inches. Given this depth of water, around 50 million acre feet of water would be required for successful raising of wheat crop over 2.2 million acres. But the reality is different keeping in view the water supply situation from river system. The river system provides around 30 million acre feet if there is no shortage. But with 35 to 40 per cent projected shortage, the system supply would drop to 18 million acre.

To add to this, tube-wells pump out around 40 million acre feet yearly - 20 million acre feet in Kharif and roughly the same quantity in Rabi. Even if a 20 million acre foot is added to 18 million acre feet from rivers and dams, there would be still shortage of 1.2 million acre feet.

How much acreage would be affected by this 24 per cent water shortage is a question difficult to answer at this point in time. But the thing that needs to be emphasised here is that this 24 per cent shortage would surely be a make or break factor for the crop. The shortage of 1.2 million acre feet, therefore, poses a big challenge to the plans of the government about the acreage.

Water scarcity also reduces fertiliser use efficiency. Fertilisers are key input to harvest bumper crops. A number of calculated methodologies have been used to determine the rate of return to the farmers on use of organic and inorganic fertilisers.

Ideally, the organic matter ought to be around two per cent for benefits to accrue. The current status of organic matter in the soil is less than 0.1 per cent making for a very toxic soil. The land is turning into alkaline because of continuous use of chemical fertilisers and water scarcity.

The government pledge to increase food supply and tackle the price spiral through massive production would only turn to be true if there is no water shortage to affect wheat production. At the same time, the Punjab chief minister also lost no time and fixed wheat production target of 20 million tones for Punjab province.

How these targets could materialise when almost all crucial factors for wheat production are in the negative, at least at present. A critical challenge in achieving the official wheat production target would be of course the availability of water. Water levels in both dams of the country have already started depleting, even before they could be filled.

At present, both Sindh and Punjab are drawing heavily to save their standing Kharif crops at the risk of Rabi crops. In case, canal water is not available for Rabi crops, the alternative is pumping water out of the soil. However, there is a question mark whether it is feasible economically after the current 30 to 50 per cent raise in power charges. Water shortage would certainly affect the government’s plan to bring about 25 per cent increase in yield.

A good part of the country’s economic future depends on its ability to work its well endowed agricultural sector towards achieving its potential. It should be able to meet not only the growing demand for agricultural products for its large population but also significantly increase the country’s export earnings. It could contribute significantly to reducing the incidence of poverty and narrow the inter-personal income gap.

Agriculture could also reduce the growing disparities among the country’s regions, increasing incomes for the more backward parts. Since women participate more actively in agricultural workforce, increasing the sector’s productivity would help bring them out of poverty. However, for all that to take place, the direction of public policy needs to be changed. Since pricing of water is important; water is scare; its prices should reflect its cost. Made to pay the scarcity value of water, the farmers will change their cropping pattern to less water-intensive crops.