“We’ve moved from the insurgency phase to the reconciliation phase, but all’s not well. If foreign elements continue to infiltrate Balochistan, they could stir trouble and undermine our efforts to restore peace,” says Lt-Gen Khalid Shamim Wyne, the corps commander, indicating that in spite of the militants’ ceasefire, external forces have a role to play in destabilising the province.

For years, with only intermittent phases of peace in the province, the Pakistani establishment has been on its toes tackling insurgent elements in Balochistan. While the government believes that the trouble has been fomented by foreign elements with the aim of acquiring control over Balochistan’s plentiful natural resources, some independent analysts say that the insurgency is entirely the work of internal elements. Says former senator Sanaullah Baloch: “The unrest in Balochistan is the outcome of home-grown frustration.”

Yet others like Baloch nationalist leader Hasil Bizenjo indicate that it is a mix of both — outside influence and internal issues. While dwelling on the lack of basic facilities that have fuelled Baloch discontent, he adds: “The vested interests of many powers have focussed attention on Balochistan, the energy hub of the area. The establishment should tread carefully.”

With plans for an Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline passing through the province, the development of the Gwadar Port, and its proximity to Iran, it is obvious that Balochistan has attracted the attention of regional and world powers alike.

But political and economic rivalry between the major global powers has also kept interest alive in Balochistan. China’s close economic cooperation with the Pakistan government and its many projects in Balochistan have not gone down well in the US.

“The US believes that China’s involvement in Balochistan will give it greater access to the Gulf and Iran,” says defence analyst, Lt-Gen (retd) Talat Masood. Which is why there is a body of opinion that the US is using Baloch territory in Pakistan to fuel trouble in the Iranian Sistan-Balochistan province by supporting the Jundullah, a militant group fighting for Baloch rights in Iran.

“The US is playing a double game,” says a Baloch analyst, requesting anonymity. “On the one hand it provides the Pakistan army with weaponry to target the people of Balochistan to protect its oil investments. On the other it supports the Jundullah to tackle Iran.”

Although confronted with Iranian fears regarding the development of the Gwadar Port and the competition this would present to Tehran’s facilities, Pakistani officials refute theories that Iran may have a hand in the unrest in Balochistan.“There might be movement of insurgents across the border but it is definitely not government [Iran]-instigated,” says Lt-Gen Wyne. But he is not willing to rule out Indian and Afghan involvement in Baloch militancy.

“There is extensive involvement on the part of India and Afghanistan,” says Maj-Gen Saleem Nawaz, inspector-general, Frontier Corps, Balochistan, although he says that at this point there is “no insurgency” in Balochistan.

He accuses Indian and Afghan elements of propagating the theory of insurgency in Balochistan, adding, “perhaps India and Afghanistan plan to turn it into one”. He confirms the presence of militant training camps in Kandahar and Nimruz in Afghanistan.

His military colleague Lt-Gen Wyne asserts that a transfer of weapons takes place through the extremely porous border area with Afghanistan.

“Since there are more Pakhtuns in this area than Baloch, the former smuggle weapons to Quetta or other parts of Balochistan. These are then transferred to the Baloch [militants].”

Lt-Gen Wyne further questions the presence of Indian consulates in Kandahar.

“Consulates are meant to facilitate trade and travel. The consulates in Kandahar are doing neither. What is their purpose?”

Talat Masood, agrees that India could have a hand in brewing trouble in Balochistan.

“The Indians could be trying to reciprocate Pakistan’s actions in Kashmir.” However, the real problem, he says, lies within.

His views are at variance with those of Lt-Gen Wyne. “All this is highly exaggerated. Consulates have been there (Kandahar) for years. What can they do? You do not need consulates to stir trouble in a vulnerable region.” He nevertheless admits that the focus of rivalry between India and Pakistan has shifted from Kashmir to Afghanistan.

Citing the views of a pro-independence Baloch leader on the run, Hasil Bizenjo says that any help to fight the enemy — in this case the Pakistani establishment — is welcome to the separatists. “States do not break, they are broken down,” he says.

“The problem is the colonial thinking of the government — that the people will try to break the country if they are given their rights.

“This is wrong. If a Baloch gets his rights within the framework of Pakistan he will never demand independence.”