NAIROBI (Kenya): Two years after being routed from Somalia’s capital, an anti-western Islamic movement is poised for a comeback in the besieged Horn of Africa nation.

Although the movement is divided by competing ideologies and goals, it nonetheless has made many recent gains through a combination of brutal force and political dialogue.

The militant wing, Shabab, which claims affiliation to Al Qaeda, controls 90 per cent of southern Somalia, including parts of the capital, Mogadishu. The moderate faction signed a peace deal with Somalia’s transitional government that could hand it half the seats in parliament.

Islamists who fled two years ago after their defeat to Ethiopian troops who had crossed the border to prop up Somalia’s failing government are re-emerging to assert their authority in several cities, often imposing strict Islamic laws against dancing, drinking or conducting business during prayer time. They’re even starting to flex their muscles again to halt piracy offshore.

”They’re back with a bang,” said Rashid Abdi, Somalia analyst at International Crisis Group, a conflict-resolution think tank. “They actually control more territory now than they did in 2006.”

With Ethiopia’s recent threat to withdraw its troops in the coming weeks, Islamist militias are positioned at Mogadishu’s outskirts. They vow to take over if, as many predict, the UN-recognised transitional government promptly collapses once the Ethiopians leave.

”We are preparing to handle our freedom and once the enemy leaves the country, we will quickly stabilise the country,” said Abdirahim Isse Adow, an Islamist spokesman.

The only question is whether the Islamist movement can resolve the internal power struggles and conflicting visions that helped lead to its downfall two years ago.

Far from the unified Islamic Courts Alliance that defeated US-backed warlords in early 2006, today’s Islamists have splintered into three groups.

Shabab remains the muscle of the movement. The militia always attracted hard-liners, but two years of fighting a guerrilla war against Ethiopians and enduring several US missile strikes have further radicalised members.

As they have recaptured southern Somalia cities in recent months, some Shabab leaders are imposing Taliban-style rules, killing humanitarian workers and terrorising women. In Kismayo, a 13-year-old rape victim was stoned to death after being accused of adultery by Shabab-installed local leaders.

The other main faction, led by former Islamic Courts chairman Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, is working to reconcile with the transitional government in a power-sharing agreement signed in Djibouti, a tiny nation north of Somalia. Ahmed is viewed as a possible new prime minister, but Shabab commanders accused him of betrayal.

A third Islamist group is based in Asmara, falling somewhere between the other two. Rivalries are so bitter that last month fighting broke out south of Mogadishu among Islamist groups loyal to different sides.

”They are embracing radically different policies,” said Ken Menkhaus, a Somalia expert and professor at North Carolina’s Davidson College. “The next fight in Somalia is going to be between the Islamists.”

It’s a familiar struggle. When the Islamic Courts took control of Mogadishu in June 2006, factions pushed competing ideologies. Some closed cinemas and held public executions, while others wanted a more modern interpretation of Islam. Differing views on how to deal with Ethiopian troops led the Islamists to disintegrate after a brief war in December 2006.Lingering divisions still might prevent Islamists from regaining control, experts say. Government officials acknowledge they are pursuing a “divide and conquer” strategy to lure moderates into parliament while isolating hard-liners.

”The splintering helps because now the extremists are all together,” said Awad Ahmed Ashareh, a member of Somalia’s parliament.

But Islamist leaders recognise that the key to their return to power might rest with reunification.

”We are working on mediation,” said Ibrahim Hassan Adou, a former foreign affairs minister under the Islamic Courts. “These groups were once one. They worked together before.”

Abdi, the analyst, said Shabab would have the upper hand in any initial Islamist power struggle. “They have the military clout and the power has gone to their heads,” Abdi said. “They think they can do anything.”

But he predicted Shabab fighters soon would encounter public resistance to their harsh policies and realise they need their former allies to help run the country. “The burden of governing is different from the burden of fighting,” he said. “They will have to reach out and mellow their ways.”

Meanwhile, Somalia’s beleaguered civilians are bracing for another change in power, wondering how life will be under Islamists the second time around.

As civilians did in 2006, many expressed mixed feelings. The Islamists’ six-month reign earned praise for restoring security. But the price was often personal freedom and human rights. There were bans against Western haircuts, watching movies and chewing khat, a leafy stimulant.

After Shabab seized the port city of Kismayo earlier this year, crime and looting ceased.

”We had no peace, but now the situation is calm,” said one Kismayo resident. “The problem is they impose rules that are too strict. ... Many people, including me, hate them. But I’m going to see where the game ends.”—Dawn/LA Times-Washington Post News Service