KARACHI: Tsunami early warning system far from perfect
It was Dec 26, 2004 when a 9.3 magnitude earthquake struck in the Indian Ocean, off the western coast of Sumatra. The earthquake triggered massive tsunamis that killed over a hundred thousand people, and left millions more homeless in the coastal areas of Thailand, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, India, Bangladesh, Burma and Malaysia.
Tsunamis have been a reportedly rare phenomenon in the Indian Ocean when compared to the Pacific, but as is the case with every other ocean, large-scale disasters are always a possibility.
While Pakistan was spared the destruction of the 2004 tsunami, the country has experienced several earthquakes, some of them devastating. The country faces a constant risk of experiencing a tsunami if an undersea quake strikes the Indian Ocean close enough to Pakistan’s coast.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department has recently installed the National Seismic Monitoring Network and Tsunami Warning Centre at the Meteorological Complex in Karachi, in a bid to give authorities ample warning in case of a tsunami. The centre is supported by highly sensitive broadband seismic stations in Balakot, Muzaffarabad, Gilgit, Chitral, Quetta, Khuzdar, Turbat, Zhob, Bahawalnagar and Umerkot.
‘Fraction of a second’
The Director-General of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Dr Qamaruzzaman Chaudhry, told Dawn that “no seismic activity occurring in Asia and the Pacific can be missed . . . as far as a tsunami is concerned. Within a few minutes, we can get the warning. However, there can be false alarms — a problem we are working on rectifying.”
Karachi PMD Chief Meteorologist and supervisor of the National Seismic Monitoring Centre Mohammad Riaz says Pakistan receives the message of an earthquake within “a fraction of a second.”
“Pakistan is technically sound and can issue a tsunami warning and generate an adequate response immediately after an earthquake, but we need to work more on our coordination with disaster management cells and organisations providing relief in case of natural disasters,” Dr Chaudhry said.
However, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) Chairman Maj-Gen Farooq Ahmed Khan is of the opinion that a sea-based early warning system is required if Pakistan wants more comprehensive protection. The sea-based system is much costlier and has so far not been made operational.
“Only the ground-based early warning system is operational at this point,” Maj-Gen Farooq said.
The PMD is connected to Hawaii and Japan’s tsunami warning systems, Mr Farooq and Dr Chaudhry said, adding that some 60-70 stations are functioning all over Asia and share real-time data amongst each other.
While there can be no concrete warning for an impending ground earthquake or undersea earthquake, “Japan is trying to develop the technology through which that can be made possible,” Mr Riaz said.
“Along with technical improvements that will certainly aid us in estimating an approaching untoward confrontation, we are in close coordination with the NDMA, and as and when we feel, assess or monitor, we let them know of any unusual activity. We also alert the provincial administration so that they may make the necessary arrangements beforehand,” Mohammad Riaz said.
When asked what kind of response time Pakistan will have in case of an undersea earthquake occurring in the Arabian Sea, Dr Chaudhry indicated that a 30-minute response time can likely be secured.
Issue of coordination
“In the situation of a tsunami in the Arabian Sea, an immense amount of damage will be caused, especially close to the shoreline,” Mr Farooq said, adding that “there should be plans and contingency plans for such a time and breakwalls should also be erected to control the extent of devastation along with other related measures that can restrict the degree of damage.
“Karachi’s cyclone affected areas are very susceptible to tsunamis. There are technical studies to indicate that. Unfortunately, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (under the Chief Minister) and the District Disaster Management Authority (under the city nazim), that are supposed to be the first responders in case of a crisis are not living up to their role. The provincial disaster management is not functional and district disaster management does not exist,” Mr Farooq lamented.
“The NDMA’s function is to generate, direct and coordinate the national response to a natural disaster, and that can only be done with the adequate cooperation at the provincial and district levels,” he said.
“We have conducted technical studies and have devised operational plans in case of such a catastrophe. The studies have assessed how much and how many are likely to be affected in certain situations in case of natural disasters. We have also devised plans on the speediest possible dispatch of food and medical supplies, provision of shelter and deployment of the armed forces for administrative purposes, and we have given these plans to the administrations of the major cities,” Mr Farooq said.
“While the government of Pakistan is supporting the PMD’s measures at equipping Pakistan with the most modern early-warning technology, we have asked the provincial authorities to invest in relief and disaster management initiatives so that there is an infrastructure at the local level at all times . . . but the provincial authorities have not responded favourably to our overtures. However, a national response at the NDMA’s behest is prepared to deal with such catastrophes but of course coordination at the provincial and district level is essential for any effective handling of such situations,” he said.