AL QUDS: Israel is losing the "demographic battle" against the Palestinians, who are about to outnumber Jews between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean while Jewish immigration continues to plummet.

"The trend is very clear - before the end of the decade, Jews will be in a minority in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip," demographer Sergio Della Pergola said.

The Hebrew University professor echoed recent comments by figures from across the political spectrum, warning that Israel "will not be able to remain both a Jewish and a democratic state" if it continues to occupy the Palestinian territories.

There are 5.2 million Jews between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean and close to 4.9 Palestinians, including the 1.2 million so-called Israeli Arabs living inside the Jewish state.

Some demographers argue that non-Jews are already in a majority because some 300,000 Russians who immigrated within the framework of the "law of return" are not Jewish.

"The Arab population has a much higher fertility rate than the Jewish population, which grows mainly thanks to immigration, but this immigration continues to drop and unless some disaster hits the Jewish diaspora, nothing points to a change," Della Pergolla said.

In 2003, immigration to Israel reached its lowest point since 1989, dropping by 31 per cent compared to 2002, according to official statistics. Fewer than 24,000 immigrants moved to the Jewish state last year, half of them from the former Soviet Union, according to the Jewish agency, the body in charge of immigration to Israel.

The Russian channel is drying up, immigration from Argentina (1,200), France (2,000) and Ethiopia is also ebbing away and immigration from the United States (2,500) rose slightly in 2003 but not enough to buck the general downward trend.

Almost 35,000 Jews immigrated to Israel in 2002, down from 44,000 in 2001 and 60,000 in 2000. Half of the 12,500 people who arrived from the former Soviet Union in 2003 and of those who arrived in recent years are not considered Jews by the rabbinate.

They nevertheless benefited from the "law of return" which grants them Israeli nationality because they have close relatives living in the Jewish state.

In 2003, as many emigrating Jews or close relatives chose Germany as Israel.Experts say the reasons for the drop in immigration are the security situation in Israel, as the intifada is still raging, 40 months after it broke out, and the economic recession.

According to the Palestinian national bureau of statistics, Palestinians will outnumber Jews by 6.2 million to 5.7 million in 2010 if demographic growth rates remain the same.

There are no official statistics on emigration from Israel because five years are required to determine whether somebody has settled abroad, but the Israeli press has suggested that between 10,000 and 15,000 a year have been leaving the country since the start of the intifada.

As the idea of "transfer" - the nationalist camp's proposal for deporting the Palestinians from "Greater Israel" - is losing ground, the argument of Israel's weak demography is being used by all sides to promote a two-state solution.

Leftwingers have warned that Israel will no longer be able to call itself democratic if it continues to rule over so many Palestinians, while the right has brandished the spectre of an Arab majority to put the case for separation, whether negotiated or unilateral.-AFP