HYDERABAD, July 28: To many here it came as a joke when the candidate of a nascent nationalist party announced that he was withdrawing from the contest against Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz for the Tharparkar National Assembly seat (NA-299) and that he had not taken this decision under any pressure, either from Richard Armitage of the United States or Sindh Chief Minister Arbab Ghulam Rahim who, according to him, had visited the SNP office and requested for his withdrawal.

No one had ever heard of this candidate who belongs to Dadu, according to the official record. Why did he file his nomination papers in the first place and why did Arbab Rahim had to make a personal request to the SNP to withdraw its candidate is anybody's guess.

Others who have withdrawn from the contest include Arbab Haji Abdullah and Arbab Zakaullah, cover candidates for Mr Aziz; and Dr Mumtaz Ali, provincial president of the Jamaat-i-Islami, and his cover candidate Mir Mohammad, who withdrew in favour of the ARD-PPP nominee.

For inexplicable reasons, the PPP has put up two candidates, Mahesh Kumar Malani and Engineer Giyan Chand, although the main opposition candidate is Mr Malani. According to insiders, the party decided to keep the candidature of Mr Giyan Chand as a precautionary measure because if for any reason Mr Kumar is knocked out of the field, Mr Aziz does not get a walkover.

The fourth candidate in the field is a gentleman named Noor Mohammad who is an outsider and lives in Badin. He is said to be supported by the PPP-SB. According to political observers in the area, anyone withdrawing or remaining in the contest is immaterial because no-one stands any chance against Mr Aziz who is the candidate of Arbab Rahim.

Mr Noor Mohammad who is reported to be a Bhatti by caste, is banking on his community, but the Bhattis of Mithi and Diplo happen to be haris of the Arbabs and even if they chose to vote for their clansman, they will make little difference to the result because their numerical strength is only in hundreds.

It will be a great achievement if the number of votes polled by him crosses three digits. The PPP, in the meantime, received a tremendous blow when Sher Mohammad Bilalani, the taluka nazim of Mithi, who has been a staunch supporter of the party, publicly announced unqualified support for Mr Aziz "in the larger interest of the people of Tharparkar".

It is widely believed here that the August 18 by-election will be a mere legal formality even if the elections are held in the fairest possible manner. This is the ancestral seat of the Arbab family and their candidates never owed anything to any party for their success. The Arbabs and the Ranas have always won here, regardless of their party affiliation.

The Arbabs and the Ranas are the most powerful families in the district. They are not only the biggest feudal lords but their political clout and muscle power also are unrivalled.

It may be recalled here that hundreds of people had to seek bail before arrest from the Sindh High Court, Hyderabad Circuit Bench, during the October 2002 general elections when scores of criminal cases were registered against them.

And when both the Arbabs and the Ranas support the same candidate who can dare cross their path. No wonder that the Makhdooms of Hala and Shah Mehmood Qureshi of Multan who have thousands of disciples in this constituency and are frontline leaders of the People's Party Parliamentarians have opted out of the campaigning.

Not that their presence would have made any difference but at least there would have been a semblance of contest. Therefore, it appears, that they have made poor Mahesh Malani a scapegoat to ensure that Mr Aziz does not win the seat unopposed.

The extravaganza staged by the Sindh government on July 7 from the airport in Sindhri, the home-town of former prime minister, the late Mohammad Khan Junejo, to Mithi where Mr Aziz was to file his nomination papers was a clear message to everyone that the government meant business.

Mr Aziz, leading a motorcade of hundreds of vehicles from Mirpurkhas, Sanghar and Badin, was a spectacle seldom witnessed in the electoral history of this region.

As if this was not enough, an army of federal and provincial ministers led by Prime Minister Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and a galaxy of VIPs also descended on Mithi, the headquarters of Tharparkar district. This also was a message to the electorate.

Mr Aziz is an international figure but except for educated people he is an alien for the people of Thar. Who is Mr Aziz? But who bothers. "We will be voting for the Arbabs," one Thari said. No wonder that Kanwar Hameer Singh introduced Mr Aziz in the July 7 public meeting at Mithi as 'top-ji-khopri' (genius).

Speaking in 'Dhatki', the son of Rana Chandar Singh made a generous use of superlatives while describing the qualities of Mr Aziz. The number of registered voters in this constituency is 256,286 - 141,552 men and 114,734 women.

The constituency has 12 union councils of Mithi and eight of Diplo and some other areas. Arbab Rahim won the seat in the last general elections by defeating PPP's candidate, Ghulam Mohammad Laat, by a large margin. The word 'Laat' incidentally means a man of great wealth.

Arbab Rahim had also won the Sindh Assembly seat from Diplo and preferred to retain this seat because it gave him the chance of becoming the chief minister. In the by-election, chief minister's nephew Arbab Zakaullah was elected to the National Assembly unopposed after the PPP withdrew its candidate.

Almost 45 per cent of the voters in Tharparkar belong to minority communities, including Menghwars, Bheels and Kohlis. The district naib nazim is also a non-Muslim.

Other communities living in these areas are Lunds, Nahrias, Kalois, Khosas and Samejas. Dr Arbab Rahim and the Ranas hold a complete sway over the minorities and it is a forgone conclusion that they will vote for the prime minister in-waiting.

Although the Lund community in the past has opposed the Arbabs but their Sardar, Khalid Lund, is a minister of state and, therefore, there is no doubt that they will vote for Mr Aziz.

Similarly, Samejas are also beholden to the Arbabs because MNA Ghulam Haider Samejo has won the other NA seat from Tharparkar with the outright support of the Arbabs. Pir Saheb Pagara has already offered his blessings to Mr Aziz and, therefore, his disciples though not in a very large number in this constituency, will definitely vote for him.

It will be relevant to point out here that the vast majority of the people of Thar are poor and simple. Their desires and demands are modest, and although Thar has enormous wealth like the black gold (coal), granite, china clay and other natural resources, their only request to the future prime minister when he visited Thar on July 7, was to give them wheat at subsidised rates. And, as first instalment the government has already sent 70,000 bags of wheat to Thar.