ISLAMABAD, May 5: India is well into the advanced stages of implementing the controversial Baglihar project in clear breach of the Indus Water Treaty, but Pakistan’s ministries of foreign affairs and water and power continue to downplay the creeping violations of the Treaty, investigations by Dawn show.

The Baglihar hydroelectric project on Chenab River in occupied Kashmir could bear serious consequences for Pakistan resulting in acute water shortages with even complete suspension of water supplies for a continuous 26 days during December, January and February.

Senior officials in both the ministries remained tight-lipped on the issue, the standard official line being that the press had blown the issue out of proportion. However, sources well in the know of the matter say it is likely to assume a serious dimension with grave political and legal implications.

Information obtained by Dawn from responsible functionaries in key government institutions revealed that work on the project was under way. Sources maintain that the project has started with India using local funding and local contractors. They say the project is expected to complete in 2004.

According to technical and legal experts, the project violates the IWT terms by providing for submerged gated spillways. These spillways allow India to increase the storage capacity of the proposed project to 164,000 acre feet, which is far more than the storage capacity allowed to India under the Treaty.

Experts warn that with its increased storage capacity, if mal-operated, the project will lead to serious fluctuation in the supplies reaching Marala. It could even go to the extent of complete stoppage for a continuous period of about 26 days during December, January and February, adversely affecting agriculture uses and defence requirements at Marala headworks. This project, they believe, could also lead to inundation of Bajwat Area above Marala headworks due to sudden synchronized releases from Dul-Hasti, Baglihar and Salal reservoirs on Chenab.

India had supplied information on the Baglihar project to Pakistan in 1992. Pakistan had then asked India to revise the project design and provide some additional information about technical aspects of the project.

However, at the last annual meeting of the Permanent Indus Commission held in May-June 2001, India turned down both these requests. Nevertheless, India agreed to hold a special meeting on the issue and also gave its consent for conducting a special tour to the site of the project.

The tour was scheduled for the last week of December, but was postponed by India at the eleventh hour. The special meeting on this issue is yet to be held. At the moment, India is not willing to provide a schedule for the special tour.

The IWT provides for general and special tours of inspection to be carried out by both sides. Although the annual general tour is provided for in the treaty, India refused to carry out any general tour of inspection during the last year.

Pakistan had asked India for a special tour to the site of Baglihar hydroelectric project in 2000. Avoidance of meetings and tours by India violates the relevant provisions of the IWT [Article VIII (4) (c) (d) and Article VIII (5)].

The next annual meeting of the Permanent Indus Commission is scheduled to be held by the end of May in India. However, Pakistan has not received any correspondence about the agenda of the meeting. Usually this correspondence starts four to six weeks before the annual meeting. A reminder was sent by the Pakistan Commissioner on Indus Water to his counterpart in India more than a month back but he has not received a reply so far.

Given the current Indian posture and the prevailing tense border situation, some officials believe, there is a possibility that this meeting may not be held at all. The 1960 IWT provides for settlement of disputes and differences between the two parties first by the Commission and if that fails, the issue is to be taken up at diplomatic level, and if even that fails a Court of Arbitration can be invoked.