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Published 09 Feb, 2010 12:00am

UK Afghan death toll matches Falklands loss

LONDON The death of two British soldiers, reported on Monday, means that as many British troops have been killed in Afghanistan as during the war to recapture the Falklands Islands from Argentina 28 years ago.

The 1982 conflict turned around the fortunes of then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, allowing her to become one of the nation's foremost 20th century leaders and helping to restore Britain's status in the world.

However, the Afghan war is much more complex for current premier Gordon Brown, who must call an election by June and is trailing in opinion polls.

The rising death toll, which reached 255 on Monday, has sapped support for Brown's government and poses serious questions about what role Britain can play on the global stage in the future.

There was widespread support for military action when Britain joined the United States in the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan to oust the Taliban after the Sept 11 attacks.

When Britain expanded its force and its mission in early 2006 in the opium-producing southern Afghan province of Helmand, the peacekeeping mission was only expected to last three years.

The then Defence Secretary John Reid said he hoped it could be completed without a shot being fired. Now there are 10,000 British troops in the country and more than 100 were killed in 2009 alone, the most deadly year since the 1982 hostilities.

“This is the war we stumbled into as opposed to the war we were told we were fighting,” said John Curtice, politics professor at Scotland's Strathclyde University. “It does nothing for people's belief that this is a competent government.”

The Afghanistan death toll equals the Falklands War as the greatest loss of life for the British army in conflict since the Korean War and Malayan Emergency in the 1950s.

In 1982, Thatcher's unpopular Conservative government was well behind in the polls trailing Labour and the newly-formed Social Democratic Party, when a 12,000-strong Argentine force invaded the remote Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic.

During the 10-week war 255 British and 650 Argentine forces were killed, but the successful military action helped the Conservatives storm to a landslide victory in the 1983 parliamentary elections, paving the way for the party to stay in power until defeat by Tony Blair in 1997.

Afghan deaths soured mood

In contrast the Afghan deaths, most of which have occurred in the last two years as British troops battle resurgent militants in Helmand, have helped sour public mood towards Brown and his Labour government.Public scepticism over British involvement in military operations is already high following the Iraq War, in which 179 British soldiers died.

“The Falklands war was very clear in its objective, the reasons for the war were pretty straightforward,” said Michael Codner, Director of Military Science at London's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

“Afghanistan is very different because there is not a clear political mission or military set of objectives. If public support not only declines but continues to decline, clearly there will be problems for the government.”

Analysts say Brown has been unlucky, inheriting a situation created by his predecessor Blair.

But critics also say Brown has shown little support for the military and opponents say his lack of defence funding during his time as finance minister led to a shortage of frontline equipment, such as helicopters.

“It's difficult for prime ministers to fight long wars. The problem is he can't give it his full attention and, whatever his personality, there will be other things that will distract him,” Codner said. “Also the war itself is undermining him politically and that weakens his stature.”

With Britain's deficit running at a record level, whoever wins this year's election will have hard choices to make about what global role the country should play in the future.

A discussion paper launched by the government on Feb 3 acknowledged Britain could not afford to pursue all of its current defence activities while supporting operations in Afghanistan and elsewhere, and investing in new systems.

Codner said Britain would have to decide if it was prepared to sacrifice its longer term status as a world power in order to address the current economic crisis.

“If the answer is no, then defence has to be protected,” he said. (Otherwise) we'll fall off the perch that we climbed back onto in the 80s after the Falklands War and the subsequent economic recovery.” —Reuters

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