MANILA, April 15 Filipinos are preparing for a historic election in which they will vote using machines for the first time, but there are rising fears the experiment could fail and trigger deep political chaos.

More than 82,000 automated machines will be used across the Southeast Asian archipelago for the May 10 election, with results expected to be known in just two days instead of several weeks under the former hand-counted manual system.

But electricity supply problems, data transmission complications, the reliability of the machines themselves and the potential for the system to be manipulated could lead to a failure of elections, analysts said.

“There are a lot of problems and vulnerabilities in the system that have not been checked, and this could lead to a failure,” Bobby Tuazon, policy studies director at the Centre for People Empowerment and Governance, told AFP.

“These machines have not been subjected to rigid stress tests in actual conditions,” said Mr Tuazon, whose group is an independent poll watchdog that has closely studied the automation process.

The breakdown of two machines in Hong Kong when voting for overseas-based Filipinos got under way at the weekend has only heightened the concerns.

“If the machines can malfunction in Hong Kong where there is excellent electricity and IT infrastructure, how many more problems could there be in remote, rural areas in the Philippines?” he said.

The automated polls are being introduced to reduce the risk of cheating, which has plagued Philippine elections in the past, as well as to make the process of counting 50 million votes more reliable and efficient.

But if machines break down or information cannot be transmitted, there may be no clear winner within 48 hours as planned, with some saying the confusion could last for months.

In a worst-case scenario, the Philippines - which has endured repeated coup attempts, a dictator and martial law since independence from the United States six decades ago - could then again be plunged into political turmoil.

Pacific Strategies and Assessments, an Asia-focused business risk consultancy group, released a report this week warning of the worst. “If poll automation falters or fails, the country could very well experience levels of political instability and constitutional crisis that would drastically increase its overall risk climate for years to come,” it said.

Senate president Juan Ponce Enrile also recently suggested that the military and police may need to take control of the country to keep the peace should there be a total failure of elections.

If no president is declared by June 30, the constitution says the next in line in the succession of power would be the Senate president, followed by the speaker of the lower house.

But both positions could be vacated by June 30 as Mr Enrile and the lower house speaker are up for re-election.

It is feared that military leaders, many of whom are close allies of President Gloria Arroyo, could then fill the vacuum.

Ms Arroyo is required by constitutional term limits to step down on June 30, but her critics insist she is trying to devise a way to remain in power and a failed election could be her answer.

The failed election scenarios are dominating the Philippine media's election coverage, but the Commission on Elections insists it has put in place fail-safe mechanisms to thwart any problems relating to computer breakdowns.

“That (total failure of elections) is inconceivable,” commission spokesman James Jimenez said on Thursday, stressing that ballots can be counted manually in the worst-case scenario.

He admitted, however, that perceptions of incompetence and corruption were weighing down the election commission. “The fact is, it has been hounded by a credibility deficit older than I am,” he told reporters.

In the 2004 election, Ms Arroyo was accused of rigging the results after allegedly phoning a poll commissioner at the height of manual counting.

She later apologised for what she said was a lapse in judgment when the scandal broke, but denied wrongdoing.—AFP