ISLAMABAD: If Pakistan People’s Party was already not mired in enough controversies and crises, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s promise to add the demand for a Seraiki province to its manifesto for the next general election has landed it in the middle of a new political storm.Analysts are pointing out that the pronouncement by the prime minister can prove to be a politically profitable move for the PPP, keeping in mind the party’s electoral strength in south Punjab. But at the same time, it can cost it support and votes.

Starting from Multan, the home district of Mr Gilani, to Rahim Yar Khan, the Seraiki belt is home to some 52 National Assembly constituencies. People from the region have long demanded a separate province, and PPP’s recent support for the demand will earn it brownie points in the region.

Other districts which fall in this belt include Lodhran, Khanewal, Sahiwal, Pakpattan, Vehari, D.G. Khan. Muzaffargarh, Layyah and Bahawalpur. In these districts, the PPP already has 24 MNAs, while the PML-N won 12 National Assembly seats and PML-Q 11.

Predictably, the demand has already provoked criticism from the main opposition party, the PML-N. With its support base in central Punjab, it’s not a surprise that the party will oppose the decision; the rest of the Punjab will hardly be in favour of losing a large part of itself which would affect the relative strength of the province in comparison to the others.

The spokesman for the PML-N, Ahsan Iqbal, cautioned that it was a move that had to be made after creating a national consensus. “The PML-N is not in favour of language- or ethnicity-based division of Punjab or any other province of the country because it will open a Pandora’s Box, and populations speaking other languages will come up with similar demand,” Mr Iqbal said.

He added that there should be a national exercise, supported by all the political parties, for the creation of new provinces, not only in Punjab but throughout the country. The aim should be to explore ways to provide better administration and governance.

Mr Iqbal claimed that because the PPP was losing its strength in southern Punjab to the PML-N it had come up with this political stunt.

However, according to a researcher working in the public sector, it wouldn’t be easy for the PML-N to turn down this demand because legislators from the Seraiki belt generally wanted a separate entity for their people. “The PPP has made a reasonably good move to further strengthen its power base in southern Punjab and to give a tough time to the ruling PML-N in Punjab in coming elections.”

Moreover, he pointed out that the move would enable the PPP to attract other south Punjab politicians such as PML-Q legislators Pir Muhammad Aslam Bodla, Muhammad Raza Hayat Hiraj and Sardar Bahadur Ahmed Khan Sihar. As these men were previously associated with the PPP and because of their constituents would welcome the decision, they would have an added reason to return to the party fold.

Unsurprisingly, Hamid Yar Hiraj of the PML-Q, a second-time MNA from district Khanewal said that Punjab had become completely ungovernable because of its size. At times, people from Rahimyar Khan and Bahawalpur had to travel to Lahore for the resolution of petty issues because the chief minister and his cabinet sat there. With Shahbaz Sharif continuing to hold all powers in his hands including the transfer of low-level staff, people’ lives were miserable, he added.

Abdul Qayyum Khan Jatoi, a PPP legislator from NA-180 Muzaffargarh also spoke against a united Punjab. “The Punjabi-speaking bureaucracy persecutes us. We want the demarcation of the boundary of a new province.”

However, even for the PPP this will not be an easy choice for two reasons. One, its own leadership from the central Punjab will oppose it. Though so far there has been little outcry, there is bound to be opposition behind closed doors, which will become public if the PPP takes some concrete steps.

This was also evident from the words of Imtiaz Safdar Warraich, PPP Punjab president. From Gujranwala, he spoke cautiously and said that the proposal for a new province was in its initial stages and that it was still to be discussed by the party before it would be made part of the manifesto.

After making it clear that the party was a long way from having accepted the idea formally, he added vaguely that if this was what the people wanted, the party would accept it.

The second reason related to the Pandora’s Box cited by Mr Iqbal. Once the door is opened to the idea of the formation of new provinces on the basis of language, how will the PPP or any other party stop the Hazara community or the Pakhtun in Balochistan or the Potoharis from walking through? All of these ethnic groups can then use the Seraiki province to demand a province for themselves.

Whether or not the centralised state of Pakistan is ready for more provinces remains to be seen.

This is why the researcher quoted earlier feelings that an effective and functional local government system could address the grievances which compel people to demand new provinces. “It is a reaction to the anti-devolution lobby, which has restored the colonial commissionorate system and even strengthened it. This will merely add to the voices in favour of more provinces and more autonomy,” said the researcher.