KARACHI: The audacious assault on Pakistan Naval Station Mehran has been met with grim resignation in security circles and incredulity among analysts.

The attack occurred 19 months since GHQ in Pindi was raided and came in the wake of three deadly attacks against navy personnel in Karachi in recent weeks. And yet militants were able to easily infiltrate PNS Mehran through an empty patch of land running alongside the rear of the base.

Another indicator of the seemingly lax attitude towards security: marriage halls owned and operated by the armed forces a stone’s throw from air force and naval bases in the area have done brisk business in recent years.

Inevitably, then, the PNS Mehran attack has raised several questions.

Why has the Pakistan Navy found itself in the cross-hairs of militants in Karachi recently?

Speculation has focused on the relative weakness of naval security. According to a senior police officer who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the latest attack, “From a low-level tactical perspective, (the naval bases) in Karachi are entrenched in densely populated areas. For some reason, the security appears to be less. The army has really tightened theirs, and the air force has its own protocols.”

The navy as the ‘soft underbelly of the armed forces’ argument is supplemented by two other contentions.

First, the possibility of the militants having insider information. “The navy was vulnerable because there is penetration in both the navy and air force. The penetration in the navy is an old story that people don’t want to talk about,” according to Ayesha Siddiqa, who once served as a civilian analyst with the Pakistan Navy.

Second, the role, albeit a quiet one, the Pakistan Navy plays in the fight against militancy. “The American warships and aircraft carrier off the coast of Karachi coordinate with the navy here,” according to Amir Rana, director of the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies. “Al Qaeda knows about naval cooperation, and has even exhorted its supporters in the Maghreb to develop ‘sea capabilities’.”

Then, the question of possible suspects in the PNS Mehran attack.

“The Ilyas Kashmiri group certainly has a proven track record to launch such attacks,” Amir Mir, an expert on militant groups, said, referring to the notorious militant chief who is believed to have morphed into an Al Qaeda leader.

“In Karachi, there is Jundullah and the Dr Arshed Wahid offshoot that has the capability for such an attack,” Amir Rana suggested. “Both also have cooperated indirectly with Al Qaeda in the past.”

Rana noted that the Arshed Wahid group had forged links with the Ilyas Kashmiri group in North Waziristan several years ago. Arshed Wahid was killed in a drone strike in South Waziristan in March 2008.

The PIPS director added: “The Shah Faisal colony area has been infiltrated by the Wahid group, as has the Malir area. They are constantly watching the bases and will have known who is coming and going, etc.”

A security official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorised to speak publicly, said of the TTP claiming responsibility for the PNS Mehran attack: “It is very plausible. The TTP-AQ link is indisputable. There are dozens, maybe hundreds, of reports by now documenting the links between the two. What was once conjecture is now incontrovertible.”

Amir Mir also agreed that the TTP claim is credible: “The Talibanisation of Pakistan, the Pakistanisation of Al Qaeda — all these groups are constantly coming together for operations. It doesn’t make sense to pretend it isn’t happening.”

As for a possible motive to attack PNS Mehran?

“Bin Laden’s death is a shocker even for the ‘friendly’ militants. This has to be the work of Al Qaeda’s local franchises. There are a lot of the friendly militant gangs in Karachi. Gulshan-i-Maymar is full of them,” claimed Ayesha Siddiqa.

According to the security official: “After Bin Laden was taken out, these groups had to respond. Otherwise, how do they justify their existence to their recruits? The desertion rate would have jumped if there had been no serious attacks. Charsadda was the beginning. It could have been much worse.”

And what does the devastating PNS Mehran attack say about the preparedness of the Pakistan armed forces and the ability of the security apparatus to deal with the terrorism threat?

Most analysts were pessimistic. “The aura is gone, their face has been blackened. If the armed forces can’t even protect themselves, who can they protect?” asked Amir Mir.

“Look, we’ve been saying it for years. You need to shut the shop of Jihad for good. All these groups they raised like pets in Fata and elsewhere, they need to be wiped out. Enough of this good militant, bad militant logic,” a veteran security analyst claimed.

Some are bracing themselves for worse days ahead. “Within a month, we should get the pulse. On the one hand, dispersion of militants may be a measure of success of military operations. But could the militants have been planning something big? Something massive may be coming up,” warned the security official.