SEOUL: North Korea is grappling with an unfavourable situation but the regime's tight grip on its people will prevent any Arab-style uprising, South Korea's defence minister said Wednesday.

“The state of affairs in the North is indeed inauspicious and anything can happen there,” Kim Kwan-Jin told a forum, without elaborating.

“We may consider whether the Jasmine Revolution could find its way into North Korea,” the minister added, referring to popular revolts that toppled autocratic North African rulers.

But the North “still maintains strong control” over its people, Yonhap news agency quoted him as saying.

The impoverished North suffers persistent food shortages and downpours this month battered many areas. United Nations agencies say more than six million people urgently need such food aid.

The South, which blames its neighbour for two deadly border incidents last year, refuses to provide government aid.

Seoul accuses Pyongyang of torpedoing one of its warships with the loss of 46 lives in March 2010.

The North denies the charge but last November killed four South Koreans including two civilians in a border island bombardment.

“Now we can't afford not to respond to North Korean provocations,” Minister Kim told the forum.

“Since the (1953 Korean War) armistice, North Korea has repeated a pattern of carrying out provocations, negotiating to win a few concessions and then provoking again. It may just repeat these steps.”

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave a similar warning during a visit to Seoul last week.

He said the North poses a “very real” threat to peace and was likely to mount fresh attacks on South Korea unless a strong deterrent is in place.