THE 2008 elections cast their shadow on the Senate elections first in 2009 as a reflection of a transition to democracy and then in 2012 — significantly though ironically — despite the recent political developments that carried the potential of destabilising the ruling set-up.

Many retiring senators in 2009 and 2012 took away the Musharraf legacy with them, thus opening the way to representation of the post-2008 reality on the ground. On both occasions, there was an infusion of the restored and rehabilitated political leadership that was marginalised under the long shadow of the men at arms. During both exercises of indirect polls, based on a limited electorate comprising the sitting legislators, parliament regained a bit of its lost privilege and relevance.

The PPP’s gain in terms of increasing its strength in the Senate from 27 to 41 seats has attracted the attention of political circles and commentators at home and a keen diplomatic community and world media abroad. These elections seem to have changed the electoral landscape of the country inasmuch as the ruling party is now bracing itself for holding on to office for another year and preparing for the National Assembly elections from a position of strength. The enhanced legitimacy of rule could bring down the pressures in the field of governance, at least for now.

Nawaz Sharif’s party doubled its share in the Senate to 14 seats. It can now capture the position of the leader of the opposition in that House. The two mainstream parties thus see merit in reaching an understanding on crucial matters that was long overdue.

The ANP has similarly doubled its share of the Senate seats to 12, drawing essentially on its performance in the 2008 elections, thus largely escaping the fallout of the issues of governance propping up ever since. The retiring senators from the PML-N and ANP were as few as one each while they gained eight and seven respectively.

At the other end, half of the MQM’s six senators retired, followed by four newly elected members. Yesterday’s Musharrafites lost heavily. Twenty PML-Q senators retired to be replaced by only four new members. Seven JUI-F senators retired while the party won only four new seats. The Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) and PPP-S lost their presence on the floor after their representatives — three and one respectively — retired. The Pakhtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP) and Jamhoori Watan Party from the opposite camp also lost their single representatives and got out of the Upper House. However, 12 independent senators in the new House pose a great challenge to party politics.

The results of the Senate elections seem to indicate that there is no imminent realignment of political forces, at least for now.

Five major political entities playing on the political stage — the PPP, PML-N, ANP, MQM and JUI-F — retain a significant presence on the floor. The ruling coalition can put together a tally of up to 70 seats in a House of 104. Others include the manifest opposition such as the PML-N or roving opposition such as the JUI-F. The reduction in the number of parties in the Senate from 14 to 10 would be considered healthy in any parliament outside Pakistan. However, the present number alsosmacks of a divided political community.

Those who boycotted the 2008 elections are now out of the Senate. The Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf’s suicidal abdication of the by-elections held for the national and provincial assemblies in February further made it redundant for the Senate elections.

Similarly, the lack of presence of the JI and PKMAP on the floor of these assemblies sealed their fate for election to the Upper House. What it proves is that, for anybody anxious to secure a move on the chessboard of politics in Pakistan, election is the name of the game. Wrong decisions in this regard can push a political party towards long years of wilderness and its leadership towards cynicism.

The Senate elections legitimately point to a query about their role in the politics of Pakistan. How far is the Senate politically significant in terms of representation of the public at large, accountability of public representatives and independence of the House vis-à-vis the National Assembly? In the 1990s, a majority in the Senate belonging to communities other than Punjabis and, in the case of the PPP, Sindhis looked up to the president while the MNAs served as the support base of the prime minister.

This was an indirect outcome of the rule of troika, whereby the president sought to contain the power and privilege of the chief executive.

In the 2000s, the Senate operated as a mere extension of the Lower House of parliament. The original purpose of a bicameral parliament, as visualised in the 1973 constitution, was to enhance the representation of provinces in the federation by ensuring their equal share on the floor. The centre piece of the concept and practice of the Senate has shifted from the province to the party. The method of elections for the territorial chamber — PR-STV (proportional representation-single transferable vote) and indirect election by the MPAs and MNAs — and asymmetry of policy scope between the two Houses have adversely cost the Senate.

The election of the Senate has become a virtual selection. Apart from a few upsets, the results of recent elections for the Senate were effectively foretold. A lot depends on the willingness of the current leadership of the treasury and opposition benches to opt for procedural reforms in the direction of making the Upper House more meaningful for serving federal objectives. After all, the element of uncertainty is the defining characteristic of elections.

How will the Senate polls shape the future course of politics in Pakistan? In electoral terms, these elections seem to have bolstered the profile of the leading parties. Those outside parliament can face an uphill task in challenging them. Outside the electoral framework of politics, one can expect a halt to the downward march of relations between the civilian government and military, and between the executive and judiciary. In fact, for non-parliamentary institutions, these elections would point to the movement of legislature to centre stage once again.

The writer is a professor at LUMS.