“It is a tragedy to convert one of the most sensitive ecological regions on this planet into a battlefield.”

According to Professor Khalid Rashid, a mathematician, physicist and a keen observer of global warming, the deployment of forces close to the Siachen glacier by India and Pakistan “shows the immense stupidity of sub-continental rulers.”

At 21,000 feet, the Siachen glacier is 77 kilometres long, three kilometres wide and is located on the strategic tri-junction between India, China and Pakistan. A ceasefire in 2003 was unable to deter the militaries of India and Pakistan from patrolling the treacherous piece of ice and both countries have been engaged in one of the costliest deployments on either side of the Saltoro Ridge.

For years, scientists have been sounding the war drums seeking attention on the slow ecological and environmental disaster that has been unfolding in the region, which remains oblivious to both neighbours.

“Avalanches and glacial-lake-overflow floods are likely to become far more common in the Himalayas due to climate change,” according to Dr Saleem H. Ali, professor of environmental studies at the University of Vermont's Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources.

Outdated security strategies “Armies on both sides should definitely consider ways to disengage,” he insists, adding that in today’s age of remote monitoring of borders “such outposts are outdated security strategies”.

Some call it “pride and stupidity” of the two warring countries; others say both Pakistan and India are “driven by machismo and bravado.” For most among the scientific community, the deployment of troops on a long tongue of ice, in an inhospitable terrain, where temperatures dip below 60 degrees Celsius, is completely pointless.

Last week, 135 men (124 soldiers and 11 civilians) were buried alive in an avalanche in the Gayari sector of the snowy region. Chances of finding survivors are close to none as rescue teams have been digging in the snow for nearly a week.

“Pakistan and India have placed thousands of their men at risk, all for no purpose” an incensed Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy told Dawn.com.

Exact numbers of the lives lost in the region, ever since the deployment began in mid-1980s, are unavailable but they are believed to be in hundreds, with more lives lost due to fatal weather than actual conflict.

"The price of this conflict in terms of human lives is likely to rise with global warming."

With the ever-increasing threats and warnings of the ‘global warming’ phenomena, things aren’t likely to get easy for the soldiers.

“The price of this conflict in terms of human lives is likely to rise with global warming,” warns Syed Ayub Qutub – director of Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute for Environment-Development Action Research (PIEDAR).

According to Qutub, several reports indicate that the glacial mass thinning and the formation of crevices in the western Himalayas and Hindu Kush is a result of climate change.

“Avalanches are very complicated events which occur when the upper snow layers lose their grip with the ice pack on which these are parked,” says the physicist Rashid.

Several factors, he adds, could have come together to cause the avalanche that triggered the deadly avalanche that engulfed the headquarters of the Sixth Northern Lights Infantry.

Movement of Indian troops may also have triggered the avalanche, since they are positioned a higher altitude than their Pakistani counterparts.

Weather extremes are becoming a norm with global warming and Rashid believes an increased snowfall this winter, combined with the sudden rise in temperatures, could have caused the tragedy to unfold.

An avalanche country Kenneth Hewitt, a professor emeritus in geography and environmental studies at Wilfrid Laurier University in Ontario, Canada, tells Dawn.com that there are very few and limited parts above the elevation of 3,500 metres which are not prone to avalanches, especially in spring. He calls the Himalayas an “avalanche country in the most extreme sense”.

Until the time better sense prevails and troops are called back, it would be wise to make a concerted effort and get expertise to deduce where and when avalanches may occur.

“That would be a minimum requirement to safeguard troops although it would be too large a task to do more than the main bases and heavily used routes, since avalanches can occur everywhere.

Preparing for and safeguarding against such accidents is relatively easier in ranges with lesser mountains, such as the European Alps or the Canadian Rockies.

“In this region (Siachen), the terrain makes it difficult or impossible to deploy similar avalanche protective works,” Hewitt adds.

“Half the snow feeding the Siachen Glacier is from avalanches, and two-thirds from the Baltoro.”

As death surges closer According to Arshad Abbasi, water and energy advisor with the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in Islamabad it was neither a cloudburst nor an avalanche but it was the “glacier surge” that took buried the men at Siachen last week.

Glacier surges, caused either by rise in temperature or some tectonic movement are a phenomenon, explains Abbasi, where a glacier advances substantially, “moving at velocities up to 100 times faster than normal.”

"Siachen is melting at an unprecedented rate and it is the presence of armies that is causing the meltdown, not global warming."

After sifting through records for tremors occurring in the last one month and not finding any evidence, Abbasi insists the rise in temperature is the cause.

“Siachen is melting at an unprecedented rate and it is the presence of armies that is causing the meltdown, not global warming.”

“In the case of Siachen, direct human intervention on a large scale is the most significant cause. That’s why the adjoining Baltoro and other western glaciers are gaining ice mass,” he argues.

Abbasi has studied the latest images of the glacier and says they show “visible cracks in the midst of glacier and a number of glacial lakes that have formed”.

Withdrawal woes For some years now scientists have also been suggesting converting the battlefield into a peace park.

Peace parks, says Ali, are trans-frontier conservation areas (TFCAs), which may belong to more than one country and seek to mitigate conflict through environmental cooperation between neighbouring countries.

“History shows us precedence of peace parks, with agreements such as The Antarctic Treaty or the Cordillera Del Condor Treaty between Ecuador and Peru.

“Even military professionals such as retired Indian Air Marshall Nanda Cariappa have noted that it is possible,” says Ali, suggesting, “there can be a small contingent of army, which can act as rangers to help with cleanup of the glacier and to guide mountaineers and scientists.”

But who will be the first to come down?

“I think India should call its troops back to the garrisons unconditionally,” suggests Lieutenant Colonel (retired) Zaheerul Hassan, who has commanded a company on the Siachen.

“A commission should then be constituted for demarcation of boundaries”.

Ali, too, thinks the first positive step towards has to come from India since they are “in physical control of the glacier and also initiated the troop deployment.”

"In the age of air travel and drones, attacks are not launched at over 20,000-foot-high cryospheric glacial passes!"

For military men like Lt Col Hassan, there is a need for Pakistani forces to stay, if India does not withdraw its troops.

His argument being that if the troops are drawn back, it will leave Pakistan virtually defenceless on the northern front.

Environmentalist, Dr Ali disagrees.

“In the age of air travel and drones, attacks are not launched at over 20,000-foot-high cryospheric glacial passes!”

He remains confident on the possibility of a peace treaty, with ‘groundwork’ for such a process already completed.

“It can even be signed within this year if both sides are willing to invest the political capital.”

Lately the Pakistani army has lost some of its popularity and this accident may further erode faith in it.

Ali sees this as an opportunity for the army to rebuild its image.

“The army must seize this opportunity to show that the martyred soldiers’ lives were not lost in vain and actually motivated peace.”

The author is a freelance journalist.