From a given list, respondents identified poverty, corruption, the energy crisis, illiteracy and extremism as the top five issues the country faces today.

No issue received more than 17pc of the vote, indicating an electorate with varying priorities.Paradoxically, 27pc of respondents higher than for any other party said the PPP would be most effective in addressing the identified issues, even though 59pc rated the current government's performance as 'poor' or 'very poor'.

Those with higher incomes appeared most unhappy with the current government a surprising conclusion given that of the top five identified issues, at least two are of greater direct concern to lowincome respondents.

Dissatisfaction also roseslightly with increasing education levels and among urban respondents.

Getting out the vote Approximately 21pc of respondents admitted to never having voted before.

There appears to be anegative correlation between inclination to vote and income level: 38pc of those with monthly family incomes above Rs250,000 had never voted, compared to 13pc of those in the earning less than Rs3,600, the lowestincome bracket.

Despite this, those in the highest income bracket were most likely (at 38pc) to have been members of political parties.

And contrary to the notion that more education might equal greater political participation, 87pc of those with no education claimed to have voted in three or more elections while only 38pc of those with at least a bachelor's degree had done so.

Ninety-four per cent of respondents did say, though, that they were registered to vote in the upcoming elections.

But from a closely contested playing field, who will emerge at the helm of the incoming government? Three scenarios According to Dr Abid Suleri, executive director of the SDPI, the outcome of the elections could unfold in a number of ways.

Scenario one: the PPP forms an electoral alliance with its current allies, the ANP, the MQM and the PML-Q.

A grand anti-PPP alliance, comprising the PML-N, the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) and the Jamaat-iIslami (JI), but not the PTI, simultaneously takes shape.Based on the findings of this survey, the PPP and its allies would be able to secure 38pc of the vote. The anti-PPP alliance could secure 30pc.

Along with the PTI, it could give the PPP a difficult time in parliament.

Scenario two: the PPP forms a partnership with its current allies except the MQM, which opts for the antiPPP alliance.

Here too, the PTI chooses to remain alone.

In this case the PPP and its allies would likely capture 34pc of the vote, with theopposing alliance securing a similar percentage.

The minority government in this instance would be weaker than in the first scenario, with a more formidable opposition.

Scenario three: the PPP forms an alliance with its current allies, the PTI teams up with the JI, and the PML-N forms an alliance with the JUI-F and other anti-PPP parties.

In this instance, the PPP and its allies would receive 38pc of the vote, the PML-N team would receive 26pc andthe PTI-JI pairing would capture 24pc.

Verdict

Given the widely varying voting patterns across constituencies, the actual outcome could be entirely different from those described above.

It is evident, though, that no single party currently stands to sweep the upcoming polls.

It also appears that the PPP will have to retain its current allies to maintain political clout, and that, amidst the traditional PPP-PML-N toss-up,the PTI is emerging as a political reality.Whoever does manage to form the next government will most likely have to contend with a strong opposition.

And if the Political Barometer's findings are any indication, that government might also find it difficult to determine which issues to tackle first to soothe an electorate clamouring for change.

Full results of the survey can be found in a supplement distributed alongside the Herald's February issue