A possibly weaker dollar

Donald Trump’s new, ultra-aggressive trade policies are ripping through currency markets. Earlier this month, the euro increased by 4.5 per cent against the greenback, its most rapid rise since 2009. A continuation of such trends would represent a sharp change after more than a decade of dollar strength, with consequences for monetary policy at home and abroad, international markets and global trade. With trade policy increasingly protectionist and the dollar suddenly weakening, three decades of Treasury orthodoxy is in question. And some in the administration want to go further. A declining dollar could, by driving up the cost of imported goods, complicate the already difficult task of managing persistent inflation in America.

(Adapted from “Does Trump Really Want A Weaker Dollar?” by The Economist, published on March 9, 2025, by The Economist)

Is silver the new gold?

To traders, silver is the “poor man’s gold” or “the devil’s metal”. For years, those nicknames were justified by silver’s lacklustre returns and the wild ride its price took along the way.

But it has almost kept pace with gold over the past year and has outperformed it over the past five. The once-niche asset is inching towards the mainstream. Since the start of 2023 the shiniest asset’s price has soared by nearly 60pc in dollars. That is more than any of the world’s leading share indices — including, after a turbulent couple of weeks, America’s S&P 500. Traders in New York have been draining London’s vaults of gold, with fears that such imports may face tariffs in the future. And they have been snapping up silver even faster. Safe-haven demand and solar panels have sent its price soaring.

(Adapted from “Why Silver Is The New Gold,” by The Economist, published on March 5, 2025, by The Economist)

The $1.2tr US trade deficit

Part of President Trump’s goal is to shrink the trillion-dollar gulf between imports and exports by getting other countries to buy more goods from the US and by spurring domestic manufacturing. The nation’s biggest trading partners — Mexico, Canada and China — contribute a sizable share of the gap. However, last year, the US ran a trade deficit with more than 100 countries, according to Census Bureau data. Gaps with some of those nations, including Vietnam and India, have grown as businesses shifted supply chains away from China. The monthly goods deficit has been on a tear — to the downside. Preliminary census numbers for January show that, after hitting a record $123bn in December, it rocketed to $153bn as businesses raced to import goods ahead of tariffs. The US runs a steady trade surplus in services, which in 2024 left the overall goods and services deficit at about $918bn.

(Adapted from “The Countries Driving America’s $1.2 Trillion Trade Deficit In Goods,” by Anthony DeBarros and Peter Santilli, published on March 1, 2025, by the Wall Street Journal)

AI talent race

Companies are increasingly asking their potential technology hires: Do you know how to work with AI? Nearly one in four US tech jobs posted so far this year are seeking employees with artificial intelligence skills, job-listings data show, as companies in nearly every corner of the economy adjust their recruiting pipelines to embrace the technology. In the information sector, which includes many of the tech giants investing heavily in AI development and deployment, a leading 36pc of IT jobs posted in January were AI-related. Companies in finance and professional services industries, such as banks and consulting firms, are also looking for technology staff who know how to use or build AI algorithms and models. Companies are seeking artificial intelligence skills when looking for technology staff.

(Adapted from “How The AI Talent Race Is Reshaping The Tech Job Market,” by Nate Rattner, published on March 10, 2025, by the Wall Street Journal)

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, March 17th, 2025